TELECOMS & MOBILE
Analysts slam 3G mobile systems
21-12-2000
by Aoidin Scully
Third generation wireless technology has been slammed this week by two separate reports, which predict that 3G networks will be not be the dominant wireless delivery method in Europe.
Latest findings by Strategy Analytics envisage that 2.5G will dominate the wireless data market, and warns that only 24 percent of the expected 1.3 Billion wireless data users in 2010 will access 3G networks.
"The reality is that 3G networks will not deliver," said Phil Kendall, director of Strategy Analytics' global wireless practice. "We really don't see users wanting to run too many applications that require very high bandwidth on a mobile phone. As well as that, NTT Docomo in Japan said recently that their trials of 3G suggested it's not going to be the incredibly high-speed broadband platform that was expected." He added that operators will push lower bandwidth applications on to 3G networks just to use the spectrum.
Meanwhile, the Boston-based Aberdeen Group has released research which criticises European wireless technology developers and operators for "promising the world before they could ensure delivery". WAP, 3G and GPRS are no longer viable services, the report declares, and EDGE (Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution) will now be the major focus for delivery.
"The expectation was set to WAP very high in terms of speed," maintained Andre Posthuma, Managing director of Business Development for Europe. "The theoretical speed is much higher than the actual and realistic speed given by WAP and GPRS."
Though the Aberdeen report claims that one of the most astonishing aspects of GPRS is that nobody seems clear what it will actually do, Posthuma posits another theory as to why GPRS will not succeed.
"One of the reasons why we think GPRS will be unsuccessful is the lack of a commercially-available handset during 2001," he explains. "We expect it to be available at the end of 2001, which is about the time that EDGE is coming round. Also, the cost of a handset for GPRS will be very high, which is not appropriate for the consumer market at the moment. And GPRS doesn't have that 'killer app' that will encourage people to use it. "
Kendall, however, disagrees. "While we include EDGE within the 2.5 G category, the majority of operators in Europe with a GSM network will have a 3G network, so the need to evolve through EDGE is less pressing. We expect GPRS will represent quite a significant change in dynamic in Western Europe because we've moved to packet data," he added. "And I don't see any evidence to suggest it won't be around for a long time."
The Aberdeen report, Cutting EDGE: The 3G Alternative, is free to download at http://www.aberdeen.com/CEC/
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