BUSINESS
PC market to slow in next few years
28-03-2006
by Ciara O'Brien
PC shipments are set to slow down somewhat in the coming years, a new survey from IDC has claimed.
Growth in PC shipments is predicted to slow to a little over 10 percent for the next few years, a drop from the 15 percent year-on-year growth we've seen over the past two years. Growth in shipment value will slump to 5 percent, the research firm predicts.
Total worldwide growth is expected to be at least 10.5 percent through 2008, beating a November 2005 forecast that said growth would slump to 8.9 percent in 2007.
IDC is predicting growth in PC shipments of 10.5 percent in 2006 and 10.7 percent in 2007. Total shipment volume is expected to reach 254 million in 2007 with a value of USD232 billion.
The biggest slowdown in the next several years will be seen in Western Europe, Japan, and the region classed as "rest of world". However, IDC has lowered its short-term expectations for the US and Japan, while the European outlook has improved as the adoption of more portable devices continues.
Meanwhile, the delay of Microsoft's new operating system Vista, which was confirmed last week, is not expected to have too much of an impact on PC sales. Microsoft was forced to push the general release of Vista back to January 2007 after some delays with security components held up development.
However, a wave of replacement activity and increased adoption of laptops was already expected to impact on PC shipments in 2006, while commercial users are expected to evaluate the new system thoroughly before adopting, meaning the delay will only significantly impact on the consumer markets.
"Some consumers will certainly delay PC purchases until Vista is available, but we expect the delay to shift only moderate volume from the fourth quarter of 2006 into 2007 and will not cause a loss of sales," explained Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
"The timing of the release will have some impact on when consumers buy, but not so much on whether or not they buy. In addition, we expect Microsoft and PC manufacturers to adjust their marketing and upgrade options to appeal to consumers in the fourth quarter even though the new OS won't be ready."
A raft of reports in recent years have predicted slowdowns in the PC market, but most have agreed that the outlook for the market remains strong. Growth has also been offset by falling prices.
The biggest driver of growth in recent years has been the portable laptop sector, a factor that continues to fuel markets, particularly in the US.
"The prevailing wind driving US PC market growth continues to be consumers and the passage of desktops to portables as their dominant computing platform," said Richard Shim, senior research analyst, Personal Computing. "Declining prices, improving performance and battery life, and widescreen displays in notebooks are luring new buyers and upgrades, while stunting desktop PC growth to a trickle."
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